Evaluasi Pola Dan Tren Curah Hujan Harian Dalam Hubungannya Dengan Fenomena ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Di Wilayah Papua Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30599/031fvn57Keywords:
curah hujan harian , ENSO, PDF, PAPUA, regeresi linearAbstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis pola dan tren curah hujan harian di Pulau Papua berdasarkan tiga fase ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, dan Netral). Data curah hujan harian dari Stasiun Torea, Tanah Merah, dan Sentani periode 1995–2024 (30 tahun) diolah menggunakan Probability Density Function (PDF) dan regresi linear untuk periode klimatologis. Hasil menunjukkan setiap stasiun memiliki respons berbeda terhadap ENSO: Torea paling sensitif, Tanah Merah memiliki variabilitas intensitas tinggi, sedangkan Sentani lebih dipengaruhi faktor lokal. Heterogenitas spasial ini menegaskan pentingnya pendekatan prediksi iklim berbasis lokasi di Papua, dengan implikasi signifikan bagi sistem peringatan dini bencana, pengelolaan sumber daya air, dan kebijakan adaptasi perubahan iklim.
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