Prediksi Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters di Kabupaten Sumbawa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30599/eybf7238Keywords:
curah hujan, Holt-Winters, prediksi musiman, mitigasi banjir, kekeringanAbstract
Penelitian ini memprediksi curah hujan bulanan (November 2024 – Oktober 2025) di Kabupaten Sumbawa menggunakan metode Holt-Winters. Data curah hujan dari November 2000 – Oktober 2024 menunjukkan pola musiman yang stabil, sehingga model aditif dipilih. Uji stasioneritas ADF dan KPSS mengonfirmasi bahwa data memenuhi syarat pemodelan aditif. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan nilai Mean Absolute Error (MAE) sebesar 45.88 mm dan Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) sebesar 63.07 mm, yang mengindikasikan akurasi prediksi yang baik. Model ini memprediksi curah hujan tertinggi pada Desember hingga Maret dan terendah pada Juni hingga September. Informasi ini relevan untuk perencanaan mitigasi banjir dan manajemen air selama musim kemarau. Model memiliki keterbatasan dalam menangani variabilitas iklim eksternal sehingga perlu dilakukan integrasi variabel tambahan untuk meningkatkan akurasi dan adaptabilitas terhadap perubahan iklim yang lebih kompleks.
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